The Philadelphia Phillies punched their ticket to the 2022 MLB Postseason as the final wild card in the National League. That means the Phillies will most likely face the St. Louis Cardinals in the wild card round of the tournament that begins on Friday.
However things could quickly change in the standings over the next couple of days. While all 12 teams have clinched berths in the postseason, there is still a chance that the playoff match-ups could look drastically different than they do today.
As it stands right now, the Phillies would be the sixth seed and will face the NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals in the wild card round. However they could end up playing either the Mets or Braves if the following scenarios play out:
Phillies vs. Mets in Wild Card Round?
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 19: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets watches his three run homer in the in the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 19, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
A few things have to happen for the Mets and Phillies to meet, mainly the Phillies would have to finish ahead of the San Diego Padres in the standings in order to clinch the five seed. Should that happen, they will face the Mets in the wild card round.
The Mets were swept by the Atlanta Braves over the weekend, all but handing Atlanta the NL East crown. There is a chance the a fifth seeded Phillies team could face the Braves, but that would require Atlanta getting swept by Miami, and the Mets sweeping Washington this week. In short, don’t bet on it.
A Mets-Phillies wild card series at Citi Field would be off the hook. The Mets owned the Phillies during the season, going 14-5 against them. These two rivals haven’t seen each other since August 21, and the Mets are a much different team now. The Amazin’s have concerns now about the health and stability of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, and the offense has been in a collective funk since Starling Marte went down. If these two meet in the wild card, it will easily be a three-game series with the series decided on Sunday afternoon.
Can the Mets Still Win the East?
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 07: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the first inning during Game Two of a doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on September 7, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
As mentioned above, technically, yes then can. Will they? Probably not. The Mets lost out on a tie-breaker with Atlanta when the Braves swept them this weekend. That means the Mets would need to sweep the Nationals, and hope that Miami wins its last two games with Atlanta to even make that a possibility. If it were to happen, the Mets would leap out of the wild card round and into a bye and the division series as the number 2 seed behind the LA Dodgers. Atlanta would be the Wild Card as the four seed and would face either San Diego or Philadelphia. Again, not likely, so bet on Citi Field being active for a three-game series this weekend.
Most Likely Wild Card Match-ups in the NL?
PITTSBURGH, PA – OCTOBER 03: Albert Pujols #5 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates his two-run home run during the sixth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on October 3, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Mets face the Padres at Citi Field, and the Phillies face the St. Louis Cardinals at New Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
If the Mets beat the Padres they will head to L.A. to face the Dodgers, unless Philadelphia (a sixth seed) beats St. Louis. In that scenario the Phillies go to L.A., and the Mets head to Atlanta for the division series. If St. Louis beats Philly, then the Cardinals head to Atlanta to face the Braves, and the Mets-Padres winner goes to L.A.
