Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos: Odds, Spread, and Total

The sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills battle the top-seeded Denver Broncos in this AFC Divisional Round showdown on Saturday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. EST.

The Bills just beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in the AFC Wild Card Round 27-24. It took awhile for both offenses to get going, then the game turned into a shootout in the fourth quarter, and Buffalo took the lead with 1:04 left in the game. Total yards were pretty even and the Bills won in passing yards 261-205, but lost in rushing yards 154-79. Buffalo had the edge in time of possession and won the turnover battle 2-1. The red zone offense was 3-for-3 and the red zone defense was 1-for-4 on stops.

The Broncos finished the season 14-3 and will be well rested from their first-round bye of the playoffs. They shared the most wins in the regular season standings with the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Denver tied a franchise record for wins in a season, and they were led by breakout quarterback Bo Nix, and a  dominant defense under Coach Sean Payton. The key to their success this season was their fourth quarter play, a solid offensive line, and the defense, which set a franchise record with 68 sacks.

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Note: The above data was collected on Jan. 16, 2026, and may have changed since writing.

Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos

Buffalo finished the season ranked 15th in passing yards, first in rushing yards, tied for fourth in points scored, and 12th in points against. The Bills enter this game with the best rushing offense at 159.6 yards per game and they're led by rushing champion James Cook. However, they will be up against a Broncos' defense that ranks No. 2 in both the run and overall yardage allowed. Quarterback Josh Allen just had a solid game against the Jaguars with 273 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Bills can't let the Broncos' defense settle in. They need to continue to do well in the red zone and have a good mix of passing and rushing plays.

Denver finished the season ranked 11th in passing yards, 16th in rushing yards, 14th in points scored, and third in points allowed. This is the first playoff home game for Denver in a decade, and they will be looking for revenge after losing 31-7 to the Bills in last year's playoffs. Nix has emerged as a clutch playmaker, led numerous comeback wins, and showed significant growth in his second year. The offensive line is one of the best in the league at protecting the quarterback and helping with the running game. This team can sometimes get off to a slow start on offense and the defense has struggled to force turnovers.

Best Bet: Bills Money line

The Bills are 2-0 all-time against the Broncos in the playoffs, with those games being a low-scoring win and a blowout victory last season. Both of these teams are good at finishing strong in the fourth quarter and Josh Allen is one of the best at doing it. Buffalo should get off to a good start, while Denver might take a minute to get going. The Broncos' defense will keep things close and red zone efficiency will go a long way in this one.