San Diego Padres vs New York Mets: Odds, Spread, and Totals
A massively consequential series between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets will continue this afternoon. The Padres are desperately trying to catch the Los Angeles Dodgers in…
A massively consequential series between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets will continue this afternoon. The Padres are desperately trying to catch the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race in order to snag home-field advantage in the Wild Card round, while the Mets play to try and secure the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Both teams need a victory today, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
Taking the hill for the Padres under a huge spotlight is starter Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has been far better than anyone expected this season, putting up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 25 starts. However, those numbers both get worse when the righty pitches on the road, and it does not help that opposing batters have managed to maintain a .256 batting average against Vasquez when he plays away from home. The Mets have been an up-and-down offense lately, but they have the star power to make any start difficult, especially in their home stadium.
The Mets have a solid pitching staff, but they will have to count on one of their most inexperienced starters in a crucial contest today. Jonah Tong has only made three MLB starts, two of which ended in complete disaster. In his most recent start, Tong was shelled for six runs, failing to make it through a single inning in the process. It would be nothing short of a miracle if he were to deliver a quality start here, especially considering the nerves that inevitably accompany a young starter under immense pressure in a game like this.
Spread
- Padres +1.5 (-171)
- Mets -1.5 (+153)
Moneyline
- Padres +114
- Mets -126
Totals
- Over 9 (-104)
- Under 9 (-108)
The above data was collected on Sept. 18, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Padres vs Mets Betting Trends
- The Padres are 84-68 ATS this season.
- The Padres are 44-33 ATS when they play on the road.
- The under is 37-30-2 in games that follow a San Diego loss.
- The Mets are 72-80 ATS this year.
- The Mets are 38-40 ATS in games following a New York win.
- The over is 38-35-3 when New York plays at home.
Padres vs Mets Injury Reports
San Diego Padres
- Xander Bogaerts, SS - Out.
New York Mets
- Tyrone Taylor, OF - Out.
Padres vs Mets Predictions and Picks
Tony Tellez of Tony's Picks writes, "NY is batting .280 in their past 28 games, but a bullpen ERA of 5.20. Vazquez, in his 13 road games, has an ERA of 4.05. SD is 29-23 to the over on the road against right-handed starters. NY is 16-8 to the over at home against teams with a .540 to .620 win percentage. Play San Diego and NY over 8.5."
The over is a solid play, but the San Diego moneyline is too appealing to pass up. Tong is insanely volatile on the bump, and the Padres are a good enough offense to take advantage of that volatility to the tune of a huge offensive day. The Mets will struggle to keep pace, allowing San Diego to win by a comfortable margin.
